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4.3 Introduction to Probability

Part of Probability, Random Variables, and Probability Distributions in AP® Statistics. Read the opening section, then create a free account for the full interactive lesson, practice, and progress tracking.

Probability Rules

Basic probability rules:

Rule 1: For any event A{A}: 0≤P(A)≤1{0 \leq P(A) \leq 1}

Rule 2 (Sample Space Rule): P(S)=1{P(S) = 1} — some outcome always occurs

Rule 3 (Complement Rule):
P(Ac)=1−P(A)P(A^c) = 1 - P(A)
where Ac{A^c} is the complement of A{A} (event A does NOT occur)
Rule 4 (Addition Rule for Mutually Exclusive Events): If A{A} and B{B} cannot both occur:
P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)P(A \text{ or } B) = P(A) + P(B)
Equally likely outcomes
P(A)=number of outcomes in Atotal number of outcomes in SP(A) = \frac{\text{number of outcomes in A}}{\text{total number of outcomes in S}}

Example: Roll a fair die: P(even)=36=0.5{P(\text{even}) = \frac{3}{6} = 0.5}

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